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ray | 7th Oct 2008, 21:53 PM | 股海心經 | (386 Reads)

(轉自:幸福島)

恐慌時候重溫投資巨人的股海心經 - 牛市在"絕望"中誕生!

現在離"絕望"好像不太遠吧?!

John Templeton:Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

 

被誉为“全球投资之父”的伟大的投资家,慈善家,邓普敦基金(Templeton Growth Fund )的创始人,约翰.邓普敦(John Templeton)于7月8日去世,享年95岁。

    邓普敦早年的时候也像巴菲特一样曾是本杰明.戈雷翰姆的学生。在学生年代邓普顿就表现出杰出的"财商",12岁上中学时,他从农夫那里买了一辆报废的福特车,东拼西凑了一些零部件,拼出了一部轿车,这部车他一直开到中学毕业。美国大萧条期间,他在耶鲁大学,为了筹足学费,他办报出售广告位置,兼职学校的行政杂务,有时甚至靠与同学赌扑克牌。

    1954年他创建了邓普敦基金,最初只有200万美元的规模,到1992年邓普敦退休的时候,基金规模已经有220亿美元。1992年后他将基金卖给了富兰克林,开始了他十多年的慈善事业。邓普敦基金从1954年-1992年的38年间保持了16%的年回报率。假定1954年,你用1万美元投资于邓普敦基金,到1999年资产规模将增长到5500万美元。

    邓普敦虽然早年就离开了邓普敦基金,但他的投资哲学和影响力依然延续,1999年Money杂志称他为20世纪颇具争议的、最伟大的投资家( arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century )。

    邓普敦许多地方颇像巴菲特,如:早年师从戈雷翰姆;很小便开始making money;住在偏僻的地方,过着俭朴的生活;一生为自己和别人赚了大笔的财富;晚年又将大部分的财富捐了出去成立自己的慈善基金,就连投资哲学都很相似。

    邓普敦有一些著名的投资语录在投资界流行深广,如:

   关于牛市:牛市在悲观中诞生;在怀疑中成长;在乐观中成熟;在狂欢中死亡。

    Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

    关于买入与卖出时机的选择:在最悲观的时候买入;在最乐观的时候卖出。

    The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

    邓普敦的投资16原则(至今还高挂在富兰克林.邓普敦基金的网站上):

    1.如果你要祈祷的话,首先要祷告:想清楚了,少犯错。

    If you begin with a prayer, you can think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.

    2..战胜市场是一个极其困难的任务,这意味着你不仅要挑战普通的投资者,还要挑战那些专业的机构投资者,你要做出比他们更好的投资决定。

    Outperforming the market is a difficult task.  The challenge is not simply making better investment decisions than the average investor. The real    challenge is making investment decisions that are better than those of the professionals who manage the big institutions.

    3.投资,不要“交易(买卖)”或投机,股票市场不是赌场。如果每次股价波动一两个点,你就交易,那股票市场对于你来说就是"赌场"。那你必输无疑。

    Invest - don't trade or speculate.  The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in or out of stocks every time they move a point or two, the market will be your casino. And you may lose eventually - or frequently.

    4.买(公司的)价值,而不是买市场趋势或经济走势。其实是个股决定了市场,而不是相反。各股可以在牛市里下跌,也可以在熊市里上升,所以买个股,而不是买市场趋势或经济趋势。

    Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook.  Ultimately, it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. Individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or economic outlook.

    5.当选择股票的时候,应该在好的股票里选择好的价格。选择股票就像选择餐厅,你不必指望它100%的好,但起码也得有3星4星的水准,你才可以优先考虑。

    When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks.  Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don't expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.

    6.低买,从概念上说很简单,但实行起来就难了。当股价上升的时候,投资者会抢购;但当股价低迷的时候,投资者倒却步了,这个时候他们胆却和悲观。当你同时买入人人都在买的股票,你只能获得一个平均的收益,显然你不可能战胜市场。

    Buy low. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution.  When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic. But if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you cannot outperform the market.

    7.没有免费的午餐,永远不要偏听偏信个别的消息,而据此作出投资决定。但是,我们很惊讶很多人都是这么做的(听消息买卖)。不幸的是,很多人都相信有“内部消息”可以赚快钱。

    There's no free lunch. Never invest on sentiment. Never invest solely on a tip.  You would be surprised how many investors do exactly this.   Unfortunately there is something compelling about a tip. Its very nature suggests inside information, a way to turn a fast profit.

    8.做“家庭作业”或雇佣聪明的专业人士,在投资前多做调查研究,多听,多研究,搞清楚一个公司如何可以成功。

    Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you.  People will tell you: Investigate before you invest. Listen to them. Study companies to learn what makes them successful.

    9.分散——按公司、行业,选择多个公司和多种债券,分散可以适度降低风险,因为不管你再小心,你都很难预测和控制将来,所以只有分散投资。

    Diversify - by company, by industry.  In stocks and bonds, there is safety in numbers. No matter how careful you are, you can neither predict nor control the future. So you must diversify.

    10.追求投资回报的最大化,既首先要战胜通胀,这是长期投资者的一个理性目标。

    Invest for maximum total real return.  This means the return after inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors.

    11.从错误中学习。人,要避免完全不犯投资的错误,只有不投资,但这可能是一个更大的错误。所以,投资者要容忍投资失误,但要避免犯不可挽回的错误。把每一次错误都转化成一次学习的经验。

     Learn from your mistakes.  The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest - which is the biggest mistake of all. So forgive yourself for your errors and certainly don't try to recoup your losses by taking bigger risks. Instead, turn each mistake into a learning experience.

    12.保持进取的态度投资,记住:没有一项投资是永恒的,要随时应变。没有一个股票是可以买了就可以完全忘记的,放松并不意味着飘飘然。

     Aggressively monitor your investments. Remember, no investment is forever.  Expect and react to change. And there are no stocks that you can buy and forget. Being relaxed doesn't mean being complacent.

    13.投资者不要满足对现有问题的答案,因为可能还有很多你没有探明的问题。傲慢自大的态度迟早导致灾难性的投资后果。聪明的投资者明白,成功既是对新出现问题不断求解的过程。

     An investor who has all the answers doesn't even understand all the questions.  A cocksure approach to investing will lead, probably sooner than later, to disappointment if not outright disaster. The wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.

    14.对各种投资产品保持一种弹性和开放的态度,因为有时适合买蓝筹股;有时适合买周期性股票;有时适合买转换债券;有时则需坐拥现金。总之没有一种产品可以永远是最好的。
     Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investment.  There are times to buy blue-chip stocks, cyclical stocks, convertible bonds, and there are times to sit on cash. The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best.

    15.当市场崩溃时,每个人都在卖出,而你却没有卖出,被套牢了,这个时候也不要惊恐,也不要赶着第二天抛出,冷静地分析你的投资组合,如果你没有发现更好的股票,那简单持有你原来的组合.

     Don't panic  Sometimes you won't have sold when everyone else is selling, and you will be caught in a market crash. Don't rush to sell the next day. Instead, study your portfolio. If you cannot find more attractive stocks, hold on to what you have.

    16.不要过分小心谨慎和负面地看待市场,市场经常会调整,甚至崩溃,但大量的研究都表明股票总体还是上升的,不管是本世纪,还是下一个世纪。记住:低买,高卖。

     Don't be fearful or negative too often.  There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But over time our studies indicate, stocks do go up and up. In this century or the next, it's “Buy low, sell high.”

url:http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4118474d0100blbf.html

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