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ray | 18th Oct 2008, 22:45 PM | 向巴菲特學習 | (612 Reads)

Buy American. I Am. ——巴菲特
10月16日,股神巴菲特在《紐約時報》發表文章,特此轉載並翻譯,以作紀念。

(轉自:但斌的blog)

想跟股神巴菲特買股票之前,敬請先看本文,附中英對照,解讀巴菲特的同時,兼學英文(其實是rayray自己想學英文),一舉兩得!

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

美國和海外都一樣,金融世界一團糟。更糟糕的是,金融領域的問題正在向實體經濟擴散,並且這種擴散正在變成井噴。近期內,失業率將上升,商業行為將萎縮,媒體的頭條新聞將持續引起恐慌。

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

因此,我已經並且正在買入美國股票。我所說的是指我的私人賬戶,這個賬戶裡先前除了美國政府債券外什麼也沒有。(這裡不考慮我所持的伯克希爾股票,那些都全部捐給了慈善事業。)如果股價持續保持吸引力,我的非伯克希爾資產不久就會100%的變成美聯邦的股票。

Why?
為什麼?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

一個簡單的原則指導著我的操作:當別人貪婪時要恐懼,當別人恐懼時要貪婪。非常確定,現在恐懼四處傳播,甚至那些老練的投資者也被這種恐懼感所控制。當然,在弱勢中對于高槓桿的實體或商業保持警惕是正確的,但對美國許多健康企業的長期繁榮表現出擔心恐懼則是毫無道理的。與過去一樣,這些企業確實會遭受短暫的盈利減少。但從現在起5、10、20年內,大多數公司都將繼續新的盈利記錄。

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

讓我澄清一個觀點:我無法預測證券市場的短期波動,對于未來一個月或是一年市場將上升還是下降我完全無法預見。然而,市場在市場情緒反轉或者經濟反轉之前率先走高是完全可能的甚至是肯定的。因此如果你繼續苦等知更鳥,春天卻可能結束了。(短線走一會回的投機者,請忽略本文。因為股神巴菲特並不是在提供短線貼士,而是提供一個長線投資機會的建議。)

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

這裡是一段歷史:大蕭條年代,1932年7月8日,道瓊斯指數見到最低點41點,雖然經濟環境繼續惡化直至1933年3月富蘭克林.D.羅斯福總統就職。而此時市場已經回升了30%。或者我們回想二次大戰的早期,當美國在歐洲和太平洋遭遇困境時,市場于1942年4月見到了底部,這遠在聯軍的命運轉折之前。再舉例,1980年代早期,最好的買入時機是當通脹肆虐,經濟陷入泥沼之時。簡言之,壞消息是投資者最好的朋友。它讓你可以以市場低價買入美國的未來。

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

長期來說,證券市場是好的。20世紀,美國經歷了兩次世界大戰以及別的傷痕累累、代價高昂的軍事衝突、大蕭條、無數的經濟不景氣和金融恐慌、石油危機、流感時疫、總統辭職等。然而道瓊斯指數從66點漲到了11497。


You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

你也許會認為在這個持續一個世紀有著如此豐厚回報的市場裡,投資者還會虧損是不可思議的,但是,許多的投資者確實如此。這些倒霉的投資人之所以如此倒霉,正是因為他們認為市場令他們舒服的時候買入而在市場讓他們感覺不安時賣出。

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

今天,持有現金的人們會感覺很舒適。可是不會是這樣的。他們事實上選擇了一種糟糕的長期資產,現金不會帶來任何回報並且必定貶值。事實上,政府為了減輕目前的危機而努力實施的政策將很有可能是促進通貨膨脹的,從而會進一步加速現金的貶值。

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

接下來的幾十年,股票幾乎肯定會比現金的回報高,很可能還高出不少。持有現金的投資者在賭他們能選擇更好的時機。在癡等好消息的同時,這些投資人忽略了 Wayne Gretzky的建議:“我滑冰時總是選擇滑向那些惡作劇的精靈可能出現的區域,而不是他們已經存在的區域。”(巴菲特的意思是:持有現金是確定會出現壞情況的,而買入股票只是可能會出現壞情況。)

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

我不喜歡對股票市場發表意見,我再一次強調我對于市場在短期內會如何波動一無所知。不過,我將遵從一家在空蕩蕩的銀行大樓裡開業的餐館的廣告指示:“把你嘴巴放到你的錢曾經呆過的地方。”今天我的錢和我的嘴巴都在說股票。

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

    但斌備注:在證券市場買賣股票的決定最重要是要取決于自己的分析和判斷,任何人都無法左右並逼著你買賣,無論誰說什麼還要要相信自己大腦的判斷,我想這也是本文想傳達的一種意思。

url:http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4a78b4ee0100b6q9.html

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留言(2) | 引用(0) | 話題(股市)

[2] 自己的投資應該自己作主

巴老的號召力,卻是難以抵抗。相信很多人會因他的說話而入貨。

個人認為:自己的投資應該自己作主,任何人的意見只能作一個參考。未經思考的投資,即使獲利,也只是市場暫時借給你的,終會回收。

Ray
[引用] | 作者 Ray | 20th Oct 2008 01:06 AM | [舉報垃圾留言]

[1]

巴菲特的論述建基於一個先決條件──美國不會就此一沉不起。

畢竟,他是美國人。

但事實上,上述條件不是必然成立的。

林芸生
[引用] | 作者 林芸生 | 20th Oct 2008 00:42 AM | [舉報垃圾留言]