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ray | 7th Nov 2008, 19:01 PM | 向巴菲特學習 | (752 Reads)
巴菲特的投資理念到底是啥?華爾街日報的一篇文章從另一角度分析了巴菲特的投資行為及超越市場的原因,值得我們深思!

特別是文中最後一段" 任何投資者在選股時都可以試著像巴菲特一樣思考,而且正如他所指出的那樣:散戶投資者實際上更有優勢,因為他們買賣股票的成本遠遠低于我們。但只有當你真正能像巴菲特一樣思考時,這種優勢才有意義。最重要的是,他的成功絕不僅僅限于選股。在巴菲特漫長的職業生涯中,他曾反復改變策略。眼下,他的成功之路是大多數投資者所無法追隨的。"

巴菲特成功的另一個原因

在一片慘淡的市場要是能成為沃倫巴菲特(Warren Buffett)式的人物豈不妙哉?幸運的是,已經出現了教投資者如何追隨這位大師的行當。但不幸的是,追隨他實在是太難了。

在他事業的前二十年裡, 巴菲特通過自己的投資能力積累了大部分財富,打造了有史以來最棒的投資經理的長期紀錄。不過,巴菲特最近的成功並非僅憑投資能力,而是憑借因這一點而落到他手上的交易。

巴菲特超越市場的業績只有一部分來自選股的成果。他的成就更大一部分源于Berkshire Hathaway Inc.所營運的子公司,如Benjamin Moore塗料公司和Geico保險公司。巴菲特上週對我說,這是毫無疑問的,至少在過去的十年中,Berkshire經營的業務增長比有價證券每股股價的漲幅要快得多。

這比以前衡量巴菲特有多精于選股要難得多。當我問他知不知道Berkshire的股票投資組合近年的業績如何時,他回答說,我不知道回報率是多少,但我自己深知要計算出回報率有多難,因此我對任何人提供的數字都表示懷疑。

這麼說來,外行的估計肯定準不了。自1988年底以來,Berkshire的股票投資組合已經從35.6億美元增長到695.1億美元,年均增長率達到可觀的16.5%,遠遠超出標準普爾500指數10.5%的年均收益率。當然,這個數字只是粗略的估計,因為它忽略了巴菲特在此期間所增減的資金。

同一時期,反映巴菲特所有投資活動而不光是選股的Berkshire每股帳面價值增長了19.9%。

這也就是說,比起巴菲特通過其他方式為公司增添的價值,他的選股能力黯然失色。

就是在1995年,Berkshire的總資產還有73.5%由股票投資組合構成,至少在理論上,任何投資者都同樣可以實現這樣的結構。但截至今年6月30日,Berkshire的持股佔總資產比例僅為25%。

巴菲特所挑選的股票曾經是推動公司增長的"火車頭";而最近它們卻更像是可有可無的部分。他一直在直接收購私營公司,並與上市公司進行獲利豐厚的交易。

自2006年初以來,Berkshire已經斥資近170億美元收購大量私營公司,其中包括一家以色列切割工具生產商和一家電子元件銷售商。

與此同時,在獲利豐厚的交易方面,僅2008年,巴菲特就向高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group)投入了50億美元、向通用電氣(General Electric Co.)投入了30億美元、陶氏化學公司(Dow Chemical Co.)30億美元,還在瑪氏公司(Mars Inc.)與箭牌糖類有限公司(WM. Wrigley Jr. Co.)的並購交易中投入了65億美元,這些投資都獲得了十分優惠的條件。

二十年前,巴菲特也進行過許多類似交易,交易對象從血統純正的吉列(Gillette)到Champion International、所羅門兄弟(Salomon Brothers)和USAir Group等雜牌軍應有盡有。這些投資的成果有好有壞。我們從中學到的教訓是即便是巴菲特也有失手的時候。在最新一輪交易中,他基本上都是穩賺不賠,實現了其他投資者夢寐以求的贏得徹頭徹尾的模式。

無論是在他所稱的"拍賣市場"買進股票還是在"議價市場"收購私營企業,巴菲特都試圖保持一個安全邊際。巴菲特的導師本傑明格雷漢姆(Benjamin Graham)對"安全邊際"的定義是,收購價遠遠低于一個企業的基本價值,因此不可能出現嚴重虧損。

巴菲特對我說,我們確實試圖像買進股票一樣收購企業,也像收購企業一樣買股票。他這話的一個含義是,他想了解這家企業如何實現收入、管理水平怎麼樣及其在提高產品或服務價格的情況下客戶是否依然保持忠誠。請注意:現行股價並不反映這些因素。

巴菲特解釋說,做企業家的經歷令我成為更好的投資者,而當投資者又讓我成為更好的企業家。大多數企業家都局限在自己的領域裡,而大多數投資者都沒有真正去考慮商業方面的東西。許多企業家都不太明白自己的領域之外的準繩。我總是將所有的東西進行比較。我想弄清楚的問題是:我們怎麼將資金投向自己所理解的方面,從而實現最大回報?

巴菲特還說,Berkshire副董事長查理芒格(Charlie Munger)和他自己都喜歡永久性地擁有私營企業。20多年來,這一點一直是他最關注的。只不過有時候,有價證券的收益更引人注目。巴菲特沒有說明他是不是認為現在也是那種時候之一,但他本月早些時候的確曾公開表示自己在買進美股。

任何投資者在選股時都可以試著像巴菲特一樣思考,而且正如他所指出的那樣:散戶投資者實際上更有優勢,因為他們買賣股票的成本遠遠低于我們。但只有當你真正能像巴菲特一樣思考時,這種優勢才有意義。最重要的是,他的成功絕不僅僅限于選股。在巴菲特漫長的職業生涯中,他曾反復改變策略。眼下,他的成功之路是大多數投資者所無法追隨的。

Jason Zweig

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081104/iiv103556.asp?source=mostpopular1

The Other Reason for Warren Buffett's Success By Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Last update: 4:23 p.m. EST Nov. 3, 2008

Wouldn't it be nice, in this miserable market, to be Warren Buffett? Fortunately, a cottage industry has sprung up to teach investors how to emulate the master. Unfortunately, you might as well try to catch a bolt of lightning in a paper cup.

Exclusive Deals Add to Berkshire's Fortunes

Heath HinegardnerShould you be like Warren Buffett?

For the first two decades of his career, Mr. Buffett built the bulk of his fortune through his investing prowess, producing one of the best long-term track records of any money manager in history. More recently, however, Mr. Buffett has succeeded not through investing prowess alone, but also through exclusive deals that have come to him because of it.

Only a part of Mr. Buffett's market-beating performance has come from stock-picking. Even more of his edge has been generated by the operating subsidiaries of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc., like Benjamin Moore paint and Geico insurance. "There's no question about it," Mr. Buffett told me during the week. "Certainly over the last decade at least," the earnings of Berkshire's operating businesses "have grown at a much faster rate than the [value of the] marketable securities per share."

It is a lot harder than it used to be to measure just how good a stock-picker Mr. Buffett is. When I asked him if he knew how well Berkshire's stock portfolio has done in recent years, he answered: "I've no idea what the rate of return would be. But, knowing myself how hard it would be to do the calculations right, I'm suspicious of anybody's numbers."

An outsider, then, can barely get in the ballpark. Since the end of 1988, Berkshire's stock portfolio has grown from $3.56 billion to $69.51 billion. That is a spectacular average annual increase of 16.5%, far surpassing the 10.5% annualized return of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Of course, this calculation is only a crude approximation, since it ignores the cash that Mr. Buffett added in -- and moved out -- along the way.

Over the same period, the growth in Berkshire's book value per share, which reflects all of Mr. Buffett's activities, not just his stock-picking, was 19.9%.

In other words, Mr. Buffett's skill at picking publicly traded stocks pales alongside the value he has added to the company through other means.

As recently as 1995, 73.5% of Berkshire's total assets consisted of a portfolio of publicly traded stocks that (at least in theory) any investor could have replicated. As of June 30, though, Berkshire's stockholdings made up just 25% of its total assets.

Mr. Buffett's stock picks used to drive the train; lately, they are more like the caboose. He has been buying private firms outright and landing "sweetheart" deals in public companies.

Since the beginning of 2006, Berkshire has spent nearly $17 billion buying private companies lock, stock and barrel, including an Israeli cutting-tool maker and a distributor of electronic components.

Meanwhile, on the sweetheart front, in 2008 alone Mr. Buffett has sunk $5 billion into Goldman Sachs Group, $3 billion into General Electric Co., $3 billion into Dow Chemical Co. and $6.5 billion into the merger of Mars Inc. with Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. -- all with preferential terms. Twenty years ago, Mr. Buffett struck similar bargains with companies whose quality ranged from purebred Gillette to mutts like Champion International, Salomon Brothers and USAir Group. His results were mixed. The lesson here is that even Mr. Buffett learns lessons. In his latest round of sweetheart deals, he gets a generous upside and virtually eliminates any downside, a "heads I win, tails I win" structure that other investors can only dream about.

Whether he buys stocks in what he calls the "auction market" or private businesses in the "negotiated market," Mr. Buffett tries to secure a margin of safety. That term, defined by his mentor Benjamin Graham, means that the price is so far below a business's underlying value that severe loss is improbable.

"We do try to buy our businesses like we buy our stocks," Mr. Buffett told me, "and buy our stocks like we buy our businesses." By that he means, among other things, that he wants to understand how the enterprise generates cash, how well-managed it is and whether its customers would stay loyal even if it raised the prices of its goods or services. Note carefully: None of these factors are contingent on the current price of the stock.

"Being a businessman makes me a better investor and being an investor makes me a better businessman," Mr. Buffett explained. "Most businessmen limit themselves to their own field, and most investors don't really think about businesses. And many businessmen are semi-oblivious to the yardsticks other people use outside that field. I'm always comparing everything to everything else. The question I want to answer is. 'Where do we get the most for our money in something we can understand?'"

"I prefer, and [Berkshire Vice Chairman] Charlie [Munger] prefers, the permanent ownership of [private] businesses," Mr. Buffett added. "That's been my focus for well over 20 years. But it's just that sometimes, marketable securities are so much more compelling." Mr. Buffett didn't say whether he thinks now is one of those times, but he did state publicly earlier this month that "I've been buying American stocks."

Any investor who picks stocks can try to think like Mr. Buffett and, as he pointed out, "the individual actually has an advantage over us, because their costs of buying and selling [stocks] are a helluva lot less than ours." But that advantage applies only if you actually can think like Mr. Buffett. Above all, there is much more to his success than stock-picking alone. Throughout Mr. Buffett's long career, he has changed tack repeatedly. At this point, he is on a course most investors will no longer be able to follow.

Additional reporting by Shelly Banjo - (轉自:學習巴菲特)

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